How to Keep Making Advancements in a Transforming World

Here is the short version of this article: Progress = Criticism + Optimism.

That is a shorthand for two habits that support progress. Criticism helps us find what is wrong; optimism gives us a reason to look for something better. We still have to create an alternative, test it, and put what we learn to work.

David Deutsch is a British physicist known for his significant contributions to the field of quantum physics. In his books The Beginning of Infinity and The Fabric of Reality, he explores connections between science, knowledge, and human progress. The Beginning of Infinity is a deep book that makes you connect ideas you had never put together before. The idea that stayed with me most is how criticism and optimism work together.

Let's define some terms to ensure we are on the same page:

• Optimism: In Deutsch's account, failures reflect insufficient knowledge, and problems are soluble given the right knowledge. That is a reason to search for solutions, not a promise that a particular plan will work.
• Criticism: Actively identifying errors and problems and admitting that human beings are fallible (prone to making mistakes).
• Progress: Advancement in knowledge and the reach of human explanations.

Advancement in our explanations and progress are closely connected. People had dreamed of flying for hundreds of years. Understanding the forces involved helped turn that dream into an engineering problem, but explanations still had to be developed, tested, and put to work. Knowing why something should work is a beginning; learning how to make it work is part of the task.

Deutsch's argument is ambitious: the limits of our present knowledge should not be mistaken for the limits of what is possible. The question is how we create better knowledge.

A tradition of criticism means exposing ideas to objections and correcting the errors those objections reveal. An explanation should stand on its merits, rather than on the authority of the person offering it. It begins with a humble acknowledgment that we are fallible and our understanding is not perfect. Businesses make assumptions about customers, costs, and how work gets done. Those assumptions need the same opportunity to be challenged.

A political, business, or scientific system needs a way to discover mistakes and correct them. Problems are inevitable. We can anticipate some, but others will surprise us. Companies and individuals can develop mechanisms that expose problems early and make it possible to act on them. That means political institutions that allow leaders and policies to be challenged, a scientific community that challenges explanations, and a business that lets people report mistakes without having to hide them.

Criticism must be able to change something. If everyone can point out an error but nobody can revise the decision, the system is still stuck. The next step is to propose a better explanation or course of action and check whether it addresses the problem. Finding a flaw tells you where work is needed; it does not finish that work.

While you are learning, you also need room to recover from mistakes. Berkshire Hathaway offers an interesting example of limiting their damage. In his 2019 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett explained that disappointing businesses tend to stagnate and account for a smaller share of Berkshire's capital, while successful businesses can grow and attract further investment. Over time, the winners can become a larger part of the whole.

This is a way errors can become less consequential, rather than evidence that every error has been identified or corrected. The distinction matters: a weak business does not become better simply because another grows. But it illustrates why the structure of a system matters. We are bound to make mistakes; they need not dominate the future. Give yourself a way to recognise them, limit their damage, and give better ideas room to grow.

Humans and human systems are fallible. That is why we must remain open to criticism and willing to act on it. Optimism keeps that process going when the first solution fails. Together, these habits can help us build better businesses and better lives.

Problems are inevitable. The good news is that our present understanding does not have to be our last word on them.

Reading: David Deutsch, The Beginning of Infinity, chapter 9, “Optimism.” The applications to business above are my interpretation.

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